[SMM Analysis] Nickel Prices Retreat After Rapid Rise in an Inverted V Pattern, Inventory Continues to Build

Sep 19, 2025 16:45

Source:SMM

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Nickel prices retreated after a rapid rise this week, forming an inverted V pattern. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2510) hit a mid-week high of 122,640 yuan/mt and fell to a low of 120,260 yuan/mt on Friday, closing the week at 121,500 yuan/mt, up 0.26% WoW. LME nickel prices also fluctuated, with the latest quote at $15,320/mt, down 0.39%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 122,970 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. The average Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,250 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW, while the mainstream electrodeposited nickel premium range remained stable at -100-200 yuan/mt. In terms of transactions, spot refined nickel trading underperformed compared to last week, as downstream players adopted a wait-and-see attitude after futures prices rebounded.

On September 18, the US Fed cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, a move in line with market expectations. As macro tailwinds materialized, the nonferrous metals sector generally declined. According to the dot plot, 10 officials expect at least two more 25-basis-point rate cuts within the year. Meanwhile, China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain, this week to discuss trade and economic issues, including US unilateral tariffs and the abuse of export controls. The progress in Sino-US negotiations eased some external tensions.

Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at about 3,700 mt this week, flat WoW.

Domestic social inventory was around 41,500 mt, with a WoW buildup of 430 mt.

Nickel market

Nickel

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[SMM Analysis] Nickel Prices Retreat After Rapid Rise in an Inverted V Pattern, Inventory Continues to Build

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